Some basketball teams live and die by the three pointer. While Bitcoin going to zero would not destroy my portfolio it wouldn’t be pleasant, as it has become around ten percent of my portfolio. Bitcoin was the driver for virtually all of the downside for the last eight days of February. Live by the Bitcoin, Die by the Bitcoin (was about 44k when I wrote this)…
10-day BS Refresh
Analysis Intelligence
The Opening NW in the 2/28/2021 column is the closing NW from the 2/20/2021 column. The green numbers represent estimated changes to my net worth in those categories (green numbers in 2/28 column are the changes that I estimated on 2/20). The white “Gain from” rows show how the actual numbers turned out compared to my original estimates, ten days prior.
Still didn’t get my paycheck… They said the first one comes in the mail. That’s why I was off on my cash projection. As you can see all the gains from Bitcoin as of 2/20 got eaten up, and then some. Real estate appreciation has been a stabilizing force as of late.
Crystal Ball
I think there will be more sell offs in the stock market due to the thought of rates going up. Those growth/tech stocks are more affected by future rates going up because the present value of a cash flow way out in the future goes further down, compared to companies that are actually making money in the near term, as the discount rate goes up. I actually had been told that I may be too exposed to Tech, but haven’t made any changes thus far. Here are my 401(k)s’ allocations and US sector exposure, respectively:
Both of these charts are created in Personal Capital (may do another post on some of their investing functionality), where they also tell you how they would allocate across the different asset classes and within the US sectors. Their management, when I last spoke with them, would have chosen to allocate ten percent to each of those sectors and reallocate occasionally (they were going to charge me 89 bps for this), selling sectors that had been doing the best and reallocating amongst the other less performing sectors, trying to stay at that ten percent per sector.
Ideas for increasing NW/Learning
- Kick off Amazon ad campaign and track progress for book sales
- Finish my actuarial modules so I can get my FSA, deadline is April 9th (will be a 7k increase in salary once I get my FSA)
- Revisit Tax Liens
- Learn about Salesforce
- Start analyzing how affiliate programs really work
- Instead of relying solely on Amazon to sell my book I’m thinking to sell the books on my website as well. Should I just control the book sales in the same corporation as my real estate in Michigan?
Notes:
- I thank you for reading the post and if you liked it I hope you’ll subscribe to my email list. If you think someone may benefit from its information please pass it along. I want to help people and like interacting with people attacking this goal.
- If there are any topics you’d like me to research and report back on please let me know!
- If you want the excel workbook that I use to help me track just message me at jackallweil@gmail.com. I’m also happy to go through any calculations.
- Make Better Bets: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0893K72LZ?pf_rd_r=34RMC5D4WCM4606VD3PE&pf_rd_p=edaba0ee-c2fe-4124-9f5d-b31d6b1bfbee
- 15 Weeks to Pass an Actuarial Exam: https://www.amazon.com/15-Weeks-Pass-Actuarial-Exam/dp/1734895632/ref=sr_1_2?dchild=1&keywords=jack+allweil&qid=1601417120&sr=8-2
- Journal: (Tape Name Here)’s Journal for (Tape Year Here): Reflect Towards an Intentional Life: Allweil, Jack: 9781734895643: Amazon.com: Books
Upcoming Posts:
- Infinite Banking Mechanics
- Term and Whole Life Insurance Mechanics
- Selling Covered Calls for Passive Income